LIN vs APD — which stock performed better?

Linde plc (LIN) versus Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD), Materials, on 2026-06-27.

Result

Linde plc (LIN) performed better on 2026-06-27. LIN moved -1.650%, APD moved -2.320%.

Why these two companies

Linde and Air Products are the world's two largest industrial gas companies, competing directly across oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, and specialty gas markets in every major industrial economy. The investment debate is sharp: Linde trades at a significant premium, backed by consistent earnings beats and a clean capital allocation story, while Air Products offers a potential value opportunity as it restructures its balance sheet, resets ambitious clean-hydrogen projects, and demonstrates improving core margins — raising the question of whether the discount is justified or represents a genuine recovery opportunity.

The research

Linde and Air Products occupy the top two positions in the global industrial gas industry, a market characterised by high barriers to entry, long-duration customer contracts, and steady demand from sectors including chemicals, healthcare, electronics, metals, and food processing. Industrial gases are not a commodity in the traditional sense — once a company installs an on-site air separation unit at a customer's facility under a 15-to-20-year contract, that relationship becomes deeply embedded in the customer's operations. This structural stickiness is what gives both companies their durable earnings profiles, and it is the foundation of the investment case for each.

Linde is the undisputed market leader, generating approximately $33 billion in revenue in 2024 across four segments: Americas, EMEA, APAC, and Engineering. The company's Q1 2026 results, reported May 1, were a standout: EPS of $4.33 (up from $3.54 in Q1 2025), revenue growth of 8.25% year-over-year, and management raising the lower end of full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $17.60 to $17.90. BMO Capital responded by lifting its price target to $560 (Outperform), and RBC Capital raised its target to $570, citing Linde's pricing discipline, healthy US demand, and improving helium market conditions. With 22 of 27 covering analysts rating LIN a Buy and a consensus price target of approximately $543, the Street is firmly in Linde's corner. The stock has outpaced both the S&P 500 and the broader Materials sector in 2026, driven by strong North American manufacturing demand and the company's ability to expand margins even in a sluggish global industrial environment.

Air Products presents a more complex but potentially more interesting story for value-oriented investors. The company generates approximately $12 billion in annual revenue and holds the distinction of being the world's largest supplier of hydrogen and helium. Its fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the quarter ended March 31, 2026) showed genuine operational improvement: sales of $3.2 billion, up 9% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $3.20 (up 19%), and adjusted operating margin expanding to 23.7% from 21.6% a year earlier. Critically, 54% of Air Products' revenue comes from on-site supply under long-term contracts — a business model that functions more like an infrastructure annuity than a cyclical chemical company. Management has raised its FY2026 EPS outlook to $13.00–$13.25 while targeting a $1 billion reduction in capital expenditure, signalling a shift toward capital discipline after years of aggressive project spending.

The central debate around Air Products is whether the market's scepticism about its clean-hydrogen ambitions has created an opportunity in the core industrial gas business. The company's involvement in large-scale green hydrogen projects — including the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia — generated significant investor frustration due to cost overruns, execution complexity, and uncertain timelines. This has weighed on the stock, which trades at a substantial discount to Linde on most valuation metrics. However, Air Products' core on-site and merchant gas operations are performing well, and management is actively restructuring the portfolio: assets held for sale reached $467 million as of March 31, 2026, and the company recently won a contract to build, own, and operate gas infrastructure for a Samsung semiconductor fab in South Korea — exactly the kind of long-duration, high-quality project that reinforces the core earnings base.

The valuation gap between the two companies is the crux of the investment debate. Linde trades at approximately 30x forward earnings, a premium that reflects its execution track record, clean balance sheet, and consistent capital returns. Air Products trades at roughly 18x forward earnings — a meaningful discount that either represents a value opportunity (if the restructuring succeeds) or a value trap (if hydrogen project headwinds persist and capex discipline proves elusive). Both companies face the same macro tailwinds: the global push for industrial decarbonisation, rising demand for hydrogen in refining and chemicals, and the electronics sector's insatiable need for ultra-pure specialty gases. The question is which management team is better positioned to capture those opportunities while protecting shareholder returns.

Looking ahead, the next major catalyst for Linde is its Q2 2026 earnings report, expected around July 30, where investors will watch whether the helium market recovery and US manufacturing demand continue to support high-single-digit EPS growth. For Air Products, the key events are the potential announcement of further asset sales or project resets, and whether the company can demonstrate that its $4 billion annual capex programme is being directed toward projects with clear, near-term returns. Both companies are also beneficiaries of the global semiconductor manufacturing buildout, with electronics representing a growing share of specialty gas demand.